On November 6, 2024, Donald Trump was declared the winner of the U.S. presidential election, marking his return to the White House after a four-year hiatus. This unexpected political comeback has sparked widespread speculation about its potential impacts on global geopolitics, particularly in the Middle East—a region that has historically been a focal point of U.S. foreign policy. As Trump prepares for office, the Middle East braces for a new era of American intervention, diplomacy, and economic strategy.
As Trump returns to the Oval Office, many wonder whether he will continue his previous policies or adopt new strategies in response to the evolving geopolitical landscape. The Middle East has undergone significant changes since Trump left office, with ongoing conflicts, shifting alliances, and emerging economic challenges.
A New Chapter in the Israel-Palestine Conflict
One of the most pressing issues Trump will face is the Israel-Palestine conflict. During his first term, Trump’s persistent support for Israel led to a hardline approach towards Palestinian territories. The recent escalation of violence in Gaza and the West Bank, coupled with the humanitarian crisis in these areas, presents a complex challenge for the incoming administration. Trump may attempt to broker a new peace deal, leveraging his strong ties with Israeli leaders and the Gulf states. However, achieving a lasting resolution will require addressing the underlying issues of sovereignty, security, and human rights that have plagued the region for decades.
U.S.-Gulf Relationship
Trump’s relationship with the Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, was a cornerstone of his Middle East policy. His administration’s support for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 economic reform plan and the controversial arms deals underscored a strategic partnership based on mutual interests. However, the geopolitical dynamics have shifted, with Gulf countries increasingly looking towards China and Russia for economic and military cooperation.
With Trump’s return, there could be a renewed focus on strengthening U.S.-Gulf relations, particularly in the context of energy security and counterterrorism. However, balancing these relationships with the need to address human rights concerns and regional stability will be a delicate task.
The Iran Question
Iran remains a significant issue in U.S. Middle East policy. Trump’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 and the subsequent “maximum pressure” campaign aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional influence were defining aspects of his first term. The Biden administration’s attempts to revive the nuclear deal have faced significant hurdles, leaving the future of U.S.-Iran relations uncertain.
Trump’s second tenure at the White House could signal a return to a more aggressive approach towards Iran. This may involve re-imposing stringent sanctions, increasing military presence in the region, and supporting opposition groups within Iran. However, such strategies risk further destabilising the region and exacerbating existing conflicts.
Economic Implecations
The Middle East’s economic landscape is intricately linked to global oil markets, and Trump’s energy policies will significantly impact the region. During his first term, Trump’s “energy dominance” agenda prioritised increasing U.S. oil production and reducing dependence on foreign oil. This approach had mixed effects on Middle Eastern economies, particularly those heavily reliant on oil exports.
In Trump’s second term as president of the USA, there is likely to be a renewed emphasis on boosting U.S. energy production, which could impact global oil prices and market dynamics. Gulf countries, striving to diversify their economies away from oil dependency, may face new challenges in maintaining economic stability.
The China Factor
China’s growing influence in the Middle East presents another complexity for U.S. foreign policy. Over the past decade, China has expanded its economic and strategic footprint in the region through infrastructure, energy, and technology investments. Gulf countries, in particular, have welcomed Chinese investment as part of their economic diversification efforts.
Trump’s administration took a confrontational stance toward China, and his return could see a continuation of this policy. This may involve countering China’s influence in the Middle East through strategic partnerships, economic incentives, and military cooperation. However, navigating the intricate web of regional alliances and rivalries will require a nuanced and multifaceted approach.
Human Rights and Democracy
Human rights and democratic governance have often been sidelined in favour of strategic U.S. Middle East policy interests. Trump’s first term was criticised for its perceived indifference to human rights abuses in the region, particularly in countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The Biden administration attempted to recalibrate this approach, emphasising human rights and democratic values in its foreign policy.
As Trump returns to power, there are concerns that human rights issues may again be pushed aside in favour of strategic and economic considerations. Balancing the need for stability and security by promoting human rights and democratic governance will be a critical challenge for the incoming administration.
Whether through renewed diplomatic efforts, strategic partnerships, or economic initiatives, the impact of Trump’s presidency on the Middle East will be closely watched by allies and adversaries alike. The coming years will reveal whether Trump’s return will bring stability and peace to the region or exacerbate existing tensions and conflicts.
