China’s exports declined unexpectedly in October, marking the worst performance since February. Outbound shipments fell by 1.1%, reversing from an 8.3% increase in September, and missing the forecasted 3.0% growth. This decline was partly due to a high base last year when exports surged in anticipation of President Trump’s tariffs and a rush to stock inventory. Import growth also slowed to 1.0%, down from 7.4% the previous month. Early economic indicators, including a drop in the purchasing managers’ index to a six-month low, suggested economic momentum was waning, with factory owners reporting fewer new export orders.
Tensions between the U.S. and China increased in early October when Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, responding to Beijing’s expanded export controls on rare earth metals. However, the mood eased after Trump met Xi Jinping in South Korea, resulting in a one-year extension of their trade truce. Despite this, U.S.-bound Chinese goods still face high tariffs of around 45%, squeezing profit margins for Chinese manufacturers. Economists estimate that these tariffs have reduced export growth by roughly two percentage points.
To counter these challenges, China has sought to diversify its export markets and increase imports, aiming to become a leading export destination through initiatives that promote open trade and mutual cooperation. Premier Li Qiang projected the Chinese economy would surpass 170 trillion yuan ($24 trillion) by 2030, up from 140 trillion yuan in 2025. Nonetheless, domestic demand remains a hurdle, prompting officials to plan to boost household consumption in the coming years.
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China’s trade surplus for October was $90.07 billion, slightly down from September and below the forecast of $95.6 billion. The data reflects a period of economic adjustment amid geopolitical tensions and shifting global trade dynamics.
