Vietnam, long hailed as a manufacturing powerhouse and global export hub, is facing a serious economic setback after the U.S. President Donald Trump slapped a steep 46% import duty on Vietnamese goods—one of the highest among 180 nations affected. The new tariffs threaten to derail the country’s ambitious 2025 GDP target of at least 8%, with economists at OCBC Bank predicting a sharp downgrade to just 5% growth this year.
The U.S. has been Vietnam’s largest export market, with nearly 90% of the country’s GDP in 2023 driven by trade. Major global brands including Nike, Adidas, Uniqlo, and Apple rely heavily on Vietnamese manufacturing. Nike alone produced 50% of its footwear in Vietnam last year, while Apple assembles 90% of its wearables there.
Since the 2018 U.S.-China trade war, Vietnam has benefited from companies relocating production from China. Its trade surplus with the U.S. soared to a record $123.5 billion in 2024. However, Trump’s aggressive tariff policy could reverse this momentum.
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Despite Hanoi’s diplomatic efforts to soften the blow, experts say a near-term policy shift from Washington remains unlikely, placing Vietnam’s export-reliant economy in a precarious position.
